Podcast: Stocks, real estate and crypto outlook for 2024
I recently shared my market insights on stocks, real estate, and crypto during an interview with Malaysian business radio station BFM. US stocks have surged into bull market territory, yet the fog of uncertainty still hangs heavy, surrounding the Federal Reserve's rate hikes and the elusive path of inflation. We eagerly await distinct signals of a peak and a downward trend in inflation before drawing any firm conclusions.
Although jobless claims have recently risen and the labour market shows signs of cooling, I remain unconvinced that these indicators alone signify a turnaround in inflation. We need to witness a sustained decrease in inflation over a period of three to six months before central banks might consider altering their stance.
At present, we find ourselves in a holding pattern, where the stock market recovers from previous losses but continues to trade within a confined range. Confidence remains elusive until we witness a definitive peak and a tangible downward trend in inflation.
Tech, on the other hand, has witnessed remarkable growth, and I hold steadfast in my belief that it will endure as a long-term investment theme. Despite concentration among a select few companies, these industry pioneers are reshaping the world and generating substantial cash flows.
Now, onto the contentious topic: my unwavering belief in the potential of the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Despite its speculative nature and past volatility, cryptocurrencies are in the midst of maturing, rendering them increasingly attractive for portfolios.
Nonetheless, it is crucial to assess investments based on their merits rather than succumbing to hype. Understanding a business's present operations and its future vision is paramount, just as it was with Amazon during the early 2000s.
Determining the value of cryptocurrencies poses a formidable challenge. However, for those who embrace the innovation unfolding within the Ethereum realm, delving into the projects and real-world use cases becomes imperative.
As an individual investor, one must shift away from speculative trading and instead contemplate the long-term ramifications of these technologies over the next decade or two. Cryptocurrencies are not suitable for everyone; if you are uncomfortable with or struggle to ascertain their value, it is advisable to steer clear.
Those willing to plunge deeper and grasp the immense potential, informed perspectives can be formed, guiding prudent investment decisions.
Peter Esho is an economist and Founder of Esho Group. He has 20 years of experience in investments and markets.